Thursday, June 27, 2013

Has Inflation FORCED "2-Income Households" in the US?


A family trying to get ahead needs to go into massive debt just to keep up.  How else will the median household income of $50,000 pay for a college education for their kids?  

Where inflation hurts
Americans store most of their wealth in real estate.  So you would think that the rise in real estate values is a good thing:

Nationwide, home values are now increasing at a double-digit annual pace.  The only problem is that this is coming in the form of big money crowding out regular home buyers.  The data is convincing.  Nearly one out of four purchases for the last few years has come from investors.  The battle for limited homes in places like Arizona and Nevada has created a secondary bubble.  Regular people may not even know that inflation is occurring but the only reason this is happening is that low rates are putting pressure on real assets in the economy.  In the end, you pay more but your monthly payment is likely to remain the same.  The public for the most part does not pay attention to what the Federal Reserve does.
The impact of this on real estate is the pressure on rents and home values.  This would be fine if household incomes were going up.  But many families in the US are now in a two income trap simply to keep up.  In the past, it was possible to purchase a home, go to college, and pay for basic necessities with one blue collar job without going into massive debt.  That seems so “old school” but that was the nucleus of the US middle class.  That is no longer the case:
middle-class-trap
Adjusting for inflation, Americans now have less discretionary income compared to a 1970s family and have much higher fixed costs.  Is this a positive revelation?  Probably not and families are struggling to send their kids to college and also are having a harder time saving for retirement.  It is interesting because more families now have two incomes under one roof instead of one:
working spouses
It is great when both spouses are working because they are doing it out of their desire for career growth and professional development.  It is another thing when both working adults in a household need to work simply to put food on the table and make ends meet to pay the mortgage.  Also, childcare and other costs eat into any additional income that is brought into the household.

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